A poll released Thursday shows Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by two points.

The Montana Democrat is widely regarded as the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the 2024 election.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey has Trump-backed Sheehy ahead of Tester 48 percent to 46 percent.

Five percent remain undecided.

The Hill reports:

Tester is one of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle, a rare Democrat holding office in a state Biden lost back in 2020, and his race could determine which party ends up controlling the upper chamber.

The poll also marks a shift from March, when the same pollster found Tester up by 2 points over his Republican challenger.

Because the gap falls within the survey’s 3-point margin of error, the race remains a potential tie between the two Senate race rivals.

The survey found Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in Montana 55 percent to 40 percent, with another five percent undecided.

“When undecided voters are asked the candidate they lean toward, Trump’s overall support increases to 58%, and Harris’ to 43%. With third-party candidates on the ballot, 54% support Trump, 39% Harris, and 5% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; 3% are undecided,” Emerson College Polling noted.

“Since the March 2024 Emerson poll in Montana, Trump’s support has decreased a point, while Harris improved five points on Biden’s 35%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

The Washington Times noted fewer Montana voters are undecided in the tightly-contested Senate race.

From The Washington Times:

About 5% of the polled voters were undecided in the battleground race, a 9 percentage-point drop from the previous survey conducted by Emerson College in April.

“The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefited with a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support has only increased by two points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling.

The poll was conducted Aug. 5-6 and sampled responses from 1,000 Montana voters. About 43% of the surveyed voters were Republicans.

 

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