According to NBC News, the Harris campaign expects potential losses in multiple battleground states as the 2024 election approaches. 

The Democratic nominee’s team has expressed doubt she can hold all three states of the “blue wall” – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

In particular, the campaign is concerned Wisconsin or Michigan will go to Trump.

“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” a senior Harris campaign official said, according to NBC News.

The outlet noted Michigan is a bigger concern.

Per NBC News:

In Michigan, a large Arab and Muslim population has railed against the Biden administration’s handling of the Israeli-Gaza war, and elected Democrats there for months have issued warning signs about the presidential race. Late last month, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a candidate for the Senate, warned that Harris was underwater in the state.

Still, recent Democratic electoral success and some preliminary early voting in Michigan offer Harris hope of pulling it off. Two years ago, the party flipped the Legislature to give Democrats a trifecta for the first time in 40 years. In April, Democrats again won special elections to secure the chamber majority. Strong organization in the state on top of positive numbers with women has kept it close.

In Wisconsin, where Biden won by just over 20,000 votes in 2020, there is concern among Democrats about white male voters and rural counties that have traditionally come out big for Trump. However, the liberal bastion of Dane County has ultimately come through for Democrats, and the so-called WOW counties, the voter-rich trio of counties outside Milwaukee, traditionally includes a high proportion of female voters whom Harris’ team sees as supportive. And organizers, including union members supportive of Harris, have crisscrossed the state, including in rural counties, canvassing in a way that dwarfs Trump’s organization.

The Harris campaign feels less confident about winning North Carolina, which one official said seems to be “slipping away.”

Cont. from NBC News:

While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.

“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.

Hurricane Helene’s destruction — and the rampant disinformation that followed it — are factors that could weigh against Harris in North Carolina, these people said. One of the sources also pointed to a less competitive race for governor as a potential factor. A series of scandals upended Republican candidate Mark Robinson’s campaign, putting him far behind Democrat Josh Stein in polling; those developments have meant less local investment and intensity on the ground, that person said.

Polling after Hurricane Helene shows Harris falling behind Trump in North Carolina.

In related news, the latest Decision Desk HQ projection shows Trump winning the election for the first time since Harris became the Democratic nominee.

“Donald Trump has a 52% chance of winning, according to the Decision Desk HQ forecast,” Decision Desk HQ stated.

A closer look:

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Republicans are also projected to win majorities in both houses of Congress.

From Decision Desk HQ:

Donald Trump is now a slight favorite to win the 2024 presidential race, though the outcome remains a tossup. The former Republican president has gained a lead in polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, adding to his existing advantages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. However, polling in the seven key battleground states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—remains within the margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the results in either direction. These states are expected to be decisive in determining which candidate reaches the crucial 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in enough states to secure that number.

Republicans maintain their advantage in our forecast to win majorities in both houses of Congress.

Following reporting of third-quarter fundraising reports our model gives the GOP a 71% chance of a majority in the Senate and a 54% chance of retaining control of the House.

In the Senate, our forecast favors the GOP to flip two Democratic seats (Montana and West Virginia) and one Democratic held seat as a Tossup (Ohio). Democrats are not favored to flip and GOP seats.

Our House Forecast rates 16 seats as Tossups (with 8 slightly favoring the GOP and 8 slightly favoring Democrats. Another 12 seats are rated as Lean (7 favoring the GOP and 5 favoring Democrats).

 

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