CNN unveiled its first Electoral College projection for the 2024 presidential election.

The map shows Donald Trump positioned to take the White House.

Without considering Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the biggest toss-up states, Republicans have a 272-225 advantage on the map. 

If Democrats take the three toss-up states, Republicans still have a 272-265 edge.

According to CNN’s map, the Republican nominee would take Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, and Nevada.

The Democrat nominee would take Virginia.

A closer look:

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Per CNN:

CNN’s inaugural “Road to 270” electoral map shows President Joe Biden struggling to recreate his Electoral College majority from his successful 2020 run and former President Donald Trump with enough states solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction to put him in a position to win the presidency again.

This first look at a potential Biden vs. Trump rematch – and the electoral math each would need to capture 270 electoral votes – captures the dynamics at play 10 months from Election Day. Biden is an incumbent president with stubbornly low approval ratings, persistent questions and concerns about his ability to serve another term, and diminished support from some key components of his winning coalition from 2020.

Trump is a seriously flawed candidate who has promised to govern in undemocratic ways and who has already been rejected once by the American people after serving one term as president. He faces four criminal indictments consisting of 91 charges related to his attempts to overturn the legitimate 2020 election results, his mishandling of classified documents after leaving office and allegedly obstructing law enforcement’s attempts to retrieve them, and his falsifying of business records to conceal a hush payment to keep an adult film star from going public with claims of an extramarital affair, which he denies, in the weeks leading up to the 2016 election. He’s pleaded not guilty to all charges against him and maintained no wrongdoing.

We should be very clear about what this electoral outlook is and, more importantly, what it is not. It is the first snapshot of the Electoral College landscape in what will likely prove to be another very close and extraordinarily consequential presidential election. It is not a prediction of how things will turn out in November. It’s not even a prediction of what things may look like when the parties gather for their nominating conventions this summer.

This is an exercise designed to capture where the race stands today. If we have learned anything in recent American political history, it is to expect the unexpected. We don’t even know for certain if Biden and Trump will be the two major party nominees in the fall. However, since that appears to be the likeliest choice at this point, we have explored this initial outlook through the lens of a Biden vs. Trump race. Future versions of this outlook will similarly reflect the realities of the race, as best we can assess them at the time.

It is critical to remember that in the last two presidential contests, the loser and the winner were separated by fewer than a combined 80,000 votes across three battleground states out of more than 130–155 million votes cast nationwide.

RedState reports:

Now, it is early, and I have doubts about things like Michigan leaning red. And we’ve already seen many data points that are spelling trouble for Biden that seem to back it up. From swing states going to Trump to Biden starting to hemorrhage people from vital groups he needs, including the young, the more left, black voters, and yes, Muslims in Michigan saying they’re not going to vote for Biden because of his stance on the Israel Hamas war. Even Barack Obama is worried about the election and Trump’s strength.

So I think it’s fair to say this is one more sign of big trouble for Biden.

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In the latest polls, Donald Trump led Joe Biden amongst young and Hispanic voters.

Per Newsmax:

Former President Donald Trump’s lead over Democrat incumbent President Joe Biden in the latest USA Today/Suffolk University Poll is partially attributable to Trump’s strength with Hispanic and young voters, as well as high enthusiasm for his campaign.

Trump leads Biden by 2 points (39%-37%) nationally in a three-way ballot test between the two major party candidates and an unnamed third-party or independent choice (17%). With seven names in the ballot test, Trump expands his lead to 3 points (37%-34%).

Biden’s slip in the polling is due to Black voters abandoning him for third-party options, while Trump now holds leads outside of the 3.1 percentage point margin of error among both Hispanic voters and voters under 35 years old.

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