Decision Desk HQ updated its election forecast, saying President Trump had a 54 percent chance of winning the White House.

“The first polls close in just over 5 hours. Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the 2024 election according to our latest forecast,” Decision Desk HQ wrote.

A closer look:

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More detailed breakdown:

Decision Desk HQ Final Election Day Presidential Forecast:

Probabilities:
🟥 Trump: 54% (No change since last week)
🟦 Harris: 46%

Electoral College Forecast:
🟥 Trump: 219
🟦 Harris: 226
🟨 Tossups: 93

Average Electoral Vote Projection:
🟥 Trump: 276
🟦 Harris: 262

Tossups:
🟨 Wisconsin: 51% Trump
🟨 Pennsylvania: 54% Trump
🟨 Michigan: 56% Harris
🟨 Nevada: 57% Trump
🟨 Georgia: 63% Trump
🟨 North Carolina: 64% Trump
🟨 Arizona: 64% Trump
🟦 Minnesota: 76% Harris

“According to our final forecast, Republicans are favored to win the Senate, with a 76% chance,” Decision Desk HQ wrote.

A closer look:

Image

More detailed breakdown:

Decision Desk HQ Final Election Day Senate Forecast:

Probabilities:
🟥 Republicans: 76% (+5 since last week)
🟦 Democrats: 24%

Senate Seat Forecast:
🟥 Republicans: 51
🟦 Democrats: 46
🟨 Tossups: 3

Average Seat Projection:
🟥 Republicans: 53
🟦 Democrats: 47

Key Races:
🟨 Wisconsin: 58% Baldwin (D)
🟨 Ohio: 61% Moreno (R)
🟨 Pennsylvania: 64% Casey (D)
🟦 Michigan: 66% Slotkin (D)
🟦 Nevada: 72% Rosen (D)
🟦 Arizona: 73% Gallego (D)
🟥 Texas: 75% Cruz (R)

According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans have a 52 percent chance of retaining the House of Representatives.

Decision Desk HQ Final Election Day House Forecast:

Probabilities:
🟥 Republicans: 52% (-1 since last week)
🟦 Democrats: 48%

House Seat Forecast:
🟥 Republicans: 209
🟦 Democrats: 211
🟨 Tossups: 15

Average Seat Projection:
🟥 Republicans: 218
🟦 Democrats: 217

Key Races:
🟨 California 47: 50% Min (D)
🟨 California 27: 52% Whitesides (D)
🟨 Iowa 3: 53% Nunn (R)
🟨 California 41: 54% Calvert (R)
🟨 Michigan 8: 54% Junge (R)
🟨 California 13: 55% Duarte (R)
🟨 California 45: 56% Tran (D)

In related news, RealClearPolitics projected President Trump to retake the White House.

RealClearPolitics: Trump Projected To Retake The White House

 

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