Democrats are expected to narrow the GOP’s slim House majority in a special election Tuesday night.
The special election is to fill Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, left vacant after the death of Democratic Rep. Raúl Grijalva.
The district, which stretches from Yuma to Tucson, has far more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Adelita Grijalva, a Democratic supervisor of Pima County, is attempting to replace her late father.
She is widely favored against the Republican nominee, Daniel Butierez.
#Election2025 – The AZ-7 special election is tomorrow. Below are my predictions for the vote shares for the seat. This is expected to change the House balance to R 219, D 214. By the end of 2025, we should see the special elections run their course and be back to R 220 D 215. pic.twitter.com/4bX4bw0PKy
— US Poll Watch (@USPollingWatch) September 23, 2025
Fox News has more:
The winner will serve out the remaining 15 months of the term of the elder Grijalva, who died in March following complications from cancer treatment.
Republicans currently control the House 219-213, with three vacant seats.
Besides Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, there’s also a vacancy in the Texas 18th Congressional District, a heavily Democrat-dominated district in Houston, following the March death of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner. The special election to fill the seat will be held on November 4, which is Election Day 2025.
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a right-leaning seat where Republican Rep. Mark Green stepped down in July to take a job in the private sector, is also currently vacant. The special election to fill the seat will be held on December 2.
Other reports noted that Grijalva, if she secures the victory, would likely be the 218th House member to sign onto an effort to force a vote on releasing Jeffrey Epstein files.
Voters in southwest Arizona are very likely to elect a new Democratic House member in a special election today. That would-be lawmaker plans to become the 218th and clinching supporter of a bipartisan effort to force public disclosure of the Epstein files. https://t.co/2wE8jEX5TG
— Jon Cooper 🇺🇸 (@joncoopertweets) September 23, 2025
CNN explained:
A discharge petition circulated by Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California, needs 218 House members to sign on to force leadership to hold a vote to release the Epstein files. The pair notched their 217th signature earlier this month when Democratic Rep. James Walkinshaw, fresh off winning a special election in Virginia’s 11th District, was sworn in and signed the petition.
Both Grijalva and Butierez told the Arizona Daily Star last week they were committed to signing the Epstein petition if elected. In a statement to CNN, Grijalva said the issue “has definitely come up” on the campaign trail.
“We are hearing from voters that they believe the survivors deserve justice, and Congress must fulfill its duty to check the executive branch and hold Trump accountable,” she said in the statement.
It’s a vote House GOP leaders have tried to avoid for months. Speaker Mike Johnson adjourned the House a day early in July before Congress’ month-long summer recess to avoid votes related to the files.
ADVERTISEMENTSpeaking to CNN at the Capitol last week, Massie said he thought the House could vote as soon as mid-October on his Epstein bill, citing the Arizona special election as the catalyst for the 218th signature.
