If Moody’s, who has only been wrong one time since 1980, when they incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton would win in 2016 (like 99% of the other pollsters and analysts) is correct in their recent prediction, President Trump is going to win his bid for reelection in 2020 handily.
Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
CNBC – Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.
Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.
In the stock market model, Trump gets a 289-249 edge, while the unemployment model shows a 332-206 advantage. Across all three models, Trump wins 324-214.
Of the three models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report states.
“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.
PJ Media reports – While the economy has shown some troubling signs in the last few months, there is no downturn imminent. No wonder Democrats are hoping for a recession; impeachment isn’t working for them, and an economic fall is the only thing they can hope for.
Note that in this model, Trump wins Minnesota and Virginia, as well as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Trump will have other advantages as well. He will have substantially more money than the Democrat. And there are going to be a lot of disappointed Democrats because their candidate failed to win the nomination. Republicans, on the other hand, are united and, for the most part, enthusiastic.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong, and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm’s director of government counseling and public finance research, and Bernard Yaros, assistant director and economist. “It’s about turnout.”
Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.
Democrats may be excited about 2020, as most polls have gauged, but if this impeachment nonsense keeps up, Republicans will be angry. All you have to do is look at the 2016 presidential election to see what an angry electorate can do.
What do you think? Is there a more enthused base than the Americans who support President Trump in 2020? Are Trump voters more inspired to vote in 2020 than they were in 2016?
