A new statewide survey has Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate race separated by just two percentage points.

Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Peggy Flanagan received 44% support in a head-to-head matchup, while Republican nominee Michele Tafoya received 42%.

The result does not establish a clear leader. The gap falls inside the survey’s stated margin, and a meaningful share of voters remain uncommitted.

TIPP Insights says TechnoMetrica conducted the online survey for the League of American Workers from August 31 through September 2.

The full sample included 1,494 registered Minnesota voters. The likely-voter subgroup included 1,201 respondents and carried a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.

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TIPP reports that the data were weighted by gender, age, race, education and prior vote to align the sample with Census and voter benchmarks. It also cautions that smaller demographic and regional subgroups have wider intervals than the statewide result.

On a broader ballot that included independent candidate Marisa Simonetti and other choices, Flanagan was at 40%, Tafoya at 38%, Simonetti at 4%, and other candidates at 3%. Another 14% were undecided.

That undecided share matters as much as the two-point difference. With nearly one voter in seven uncommitted on the multi-candidate ballot, the poll is best read as a current snapshot rather than a prediction of the November result.

InteractivePolls summarized the head-to-head result alongside the survey’s field dates and likely-voter sample.

The latest finding is somewhat closer than an earlier August survey. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll had Flanagan at 46% and Tafoya at 41%, with 11% undecided.

SurveyUSA interviewed 661 likely voters from August 13 through August 17. That poll placed Flanagan five points ahead, compared with the two-point advantage in the newer TIPP head-to-head test.

The two surveys used different samples and methods, so the change should not be treated as a direct five-point-to-two-point trend line. Read together, both show Flanagan ahead while also leaving a substantial bloc of voters uncommitted.

The SurveyUSA ballot also recorded 1% apiece for Simonetti and Rebecca Whiting. The field dates began two days after Minnesota’s August 11 primaries, making it an early look at the newly settled general-election field.

RealClearPolling’s Minnesota page lists the TIPP head-to-head result as Flanagan 44% and Tafoya 42%. Its average at the time of publication still showed Flanagan ahead by more than the latest survey alone.

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That difference reflects the earlier polls included in the average, including surveys with larger Flanagan advantages. An average and a single survey answer different questions: one combines several snapshots, while the other captures one sample during one field period.

The new result therefore does not erase the earlier data. It adds another observation to a limited public polling record in a contest that moved from party primaries to a two-nominee general election less than a month ago.

Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, has presented herself as a political outsider. In a campaign post published Monday, she said she was offering voters an independent voice and a break from career politics.

Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor since 2019, has emphasized organized labor and working-family issues during the general-election campaign. She highlighted that message while attending a Labor Day parade in Cloquet.

The Minnesota Secretary of State’s certified primary results show how both nominees reached the November ballot after crowded August contests.

Flanagan won 411,853 votes, or 59.01%, in the DFL primary. Tafoya won 211,813 votes, or 52.07%, in the Republican primary.

Those were primary electorates, not a measurement of general-election strength, and the two party contests had different turnout totals. The certified results establish the nominees; the new TIPP and earlier SurveyUSA surveys provide the available statewide general-election snapshots.

The official table also lists DFL second-place finisher Angie Craig at 274,920 votes, or 39.39%. In the Republican contest, Adam Schwarze finished second with 97,470 votes, or 23.96%, followed by Royce White with 45,374 votes, or 11.15%.

The nominees are competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. The general election is scheduled for November 3.

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For now, the latest numbers show a close result inside the poll’s stated interval, alongside an undecided vote large enough to remain central to the race.

 

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