A new survey of Maine voters gives Republican Sen. Susan Collins a razor-thin advantage over Democratic nominee Troy Jackson in one of the country’s most closely watched Senate contests.

The race remains effectively tied. Collins’ advantage is smaller than the poll’s margin of error, and another recent survey showed Jackson narrowly ahead.

Quantus Insights surveyed 644 likely Maine voters on September 14 and 15. After excluding 23 respondents who said they would not vote in the Senate race, the firm based its ballot results on 621 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

On the initial ballot test, Collins received 47.1 percent support while Jackson received 46.4 percent. Five percent were undecided and 1.5 percent selected another candidate.

The pollster released the full result Wednesday:

ADVERTISEMENT

When voters leaning toward a candidate were included, Collins stood at 47.6 percent and Jackson at 47.4 percent. Undecided voters fell to 3.5 percent, while support for another candidate remained at 1.5 percent.

That left Collins ahead by only two-tenths of a point—far too little to establish a statistically clear leader.

The survey’s demographic splits showed Collins performing better among men, older voters and rural communities. Jackson led among women, younger voters and suburban voters.

Both candidates had modestly negative favorability ratings in the poll.

The Quantus result follows a different snapshot of the race. CNN reported on September 9 that its survey of 880 likely Maine voters placed Jackson at 48 percent and Collins at 45 percent.

CNN described that three-point difference as within the survey’s margin of error and said there was no clear leader. Its demographic breakdown found Jackson ahead among women and voters under 45, while Collins led among men and held a smaller advantage among voters 45 and older.

The CNN survey also found different motivations among the two coalitions. Seventy-one percent of Jackson supporters said their vote was driven more by opposition to Collins than by support for Jackson, while 74 percent of Collins supporters said their vote was primarily for her rather than against Jackson.

Those findings, combined with the new Quantus numbers, show a competitive race in which small differences in turnout and late-deciding voters could be consequential without establishing an outcome.

Both campaigns remain active across the state. Jackson posted photographs Wednesday from a campaign stop in Biddeford:

ADVERTISEMENT

Collins used National Voter Registration Day to urge eligible Mainers to confirm their registration, noting that early voting begins October 5:

Collins is seeking a sixth term after first winning election to the Senate in 1996. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former president of the Maine Senate, entered the general-election contest after Maine Democrats selected him at a July convention.

Maine uses ranked-choice voting, although no independent candidate has qualified for the November 3 ballot. The contest is drawing national attention because control of the Senate could turn on a small number of competitive races.

For now, the newest polling reinforces the same conclusion reached by both Quantus and CNN: Collins and Jackson are separated by very little, and neither survey establishes a clear leader.

This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.

 

Join The Conversation. Leave a Comment.