In recent polling conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden “in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election.”

“The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found,” The New York Times writes.

“Across the six battlegrounds — all of which Mr. Biden carried in 2020 — the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent,” the outlet added.

“Blockbuster New York Times Poll out this morning. Trump leads Biden in 5 swing states, with 300+ Electoral Votes. Trump leads in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump has 22% of black vote, 44% of hispanic vote,” Citizen Free Press noted.

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The New York Times reports:

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both deeply — and similarly — unpopular, according to the poll. But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

“The world is falling apart under Biden,” said Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old electrical substation specialist in Bloomsburg, Pa., who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 but is now backing Mr. Trump, albeit with some reservations. “I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him.”

With the latest polling figures, the likelihood of Democrats calling for Joe Biden to step aside for the 2024 presidential election will increase.

“It’s time. President Biden has served our country well. I’m confident he’ll do so for the next year. But it’s time for an act of personal sacrifice and public spirit. It’s time to pass the torch to the next generation. It’s time for Biden to announce he won’t run in 2024,” Bill Kristol wrote.

https://twitter.com/IanJaeger29/status/1721233197638230151

Per Axios:

If the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden with over 300 electoral votes, according to a new swing state poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

The poll will increase anxiety among Democrats about the 2024 election and undermines the idea that Biden is the most electable Democrat against Trump.

The poll shows Trump leading Biden in five of six swing states — Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin —all of which Biden won in 2020.

  • Biden led Trump in Wisconsin but is down 4 points in Pennsylvania, 5 in Arizona, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan, and 10 in Nevada.
  • 71 percent said Biden was “too old,” including 54 percent of Biden’s supporters.
  • Only 39 percent of those voters felt the same about Trump, who would be the oldest president ever inaugurated and has shared no details about his health.
  • Swing state voters said they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin, 59 to 37 percent.
  • Trump and Biden are effectively tied among voters under 30 — a large shift from 2020.
 

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