On September 2018, President Trump held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, where he told the massive crowd:
“This is an incredible time for our country.”
“America is winning again!”
“We have the best economy in our history.”
AMERICA IS WINNING AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/6HcBjLAAQB
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018
In the same month as Trump’s rally in 2018, CNBC reported – During his time in office, the economy has achieved feats most experts thought impossible. GDP is growing at a 3 percent-plus rate. The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. Meanwhile, the stock market has jumped 27 percent amid a surge in corporate profits.
Here’s what the stock market looks like since President Trump was elected:
Now, even President Trump’s harshest critics are being forced to admit he will “handily” win reelection in 2020, saying his chances are high because of his incredible economy.
The Daily Mail reports – Obama administration Treasury Secretary adviser Steve Rattner wrote a New York Times opinion column about Trump’s 2020 White House chances on Monday.
In his piece, Rattner, who served as counselor under former Treasury Secretary Tim Geittner, focused on three reports on prediction models from accredited economists who all found Trump will most likely retain his presidency next fall.
These same models foresaw Barack Obama’s historic White House win in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016.
Moody’s economist and Trump critic Mark Zandi has analyzed 12 prediction models for 2020 that evaluate economic trends at the state level and add political factors such as a president’s approval rating.
Zandi said Trump won in all 12 models in spite of his character.
‘If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,’ Zandi told Politico in March. ‘In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.’
Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics examined the likely Electoral College outcomes and reached the same conclusion as Zandi.
Rattner also noted that some of the models that predicted Trump would win in 2016 overestimated his margin of victory by an uncharacteristically high margin, which he credits to Trump’s polarizing persona.
CBS News notes that of the 20 incumbent US presidents before Trump who have been up for re-election only five, roughly 26 percent including Gerald Ford, have lost.