Trump will win in a “landslide,” says Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stoney Brook University who’s correctly predicted the outcome of five of the past six presidential elections. Norpoth’s model, in fact, gives President Trump a whopping 90% chance of being re-elected.
Just The News – Norpoth’s “Primary Model” has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1996, missing only George Bush’s 2000 victory over Al Gore. (When the model is “applied to previous elections,” Stonybrook said, it “correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27.”)
The professor said he was unsurprised at the model’s prediction this year, citing Trump’s performance in the primaries earlier in the winter.
“When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes … I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict,” he said in the release.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, pulled down only 8.4% in New Hampshire, Norpoth said, a number that is “unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president,” he stated.
Stony Brook University – Professor Norpoth described the focus on primaries as the key difference between his model and others.
“It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated,” he said. “I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll.”
Unlike many other projections, Norpoth’s equation ignores approval ratings.
“That’s a poll number,” he said, “and I don’t use those. I think the primary performance of a sitting president is usually a proxy for that. But I don’t use any polling data or data related to opinions.”
In July, Helmut Norpoth appeared on Lou Dobbs’ Fox Business News show where he explained his presidential election model to the host and how it predicts President Trump will win by 91%.
https://youtu.be/u8icSQUMVy4
With our the historic economy Trump created in the midst of an incredible comeback, following devastating COVID lockdowns across America, it’s hard to imagine any sane American would not want to keep President Trump in office.
