Here is the honest top line before anyone gets ahead of themselves.

As of this early update, Los Angeles County has not posted any vote totals for the Los Angeles mayor race. Not one.

The official county results feed, checked around 5:16 PM Pacific (7:16 PM Central), shows Spencer Pratt, Karen Ruth Bass, Nithya Raman, and the rest of the mayoral field all sitting at zero votes with zero precincts reported.

So if you see numbers floating around, they are not coming from the county. Polls close at 8 PM Pacific, and the first real batch comes after that.

The LA County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk laid out the election-night schedule this way:

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It’s important to know that counting ballots and reporting results does not end on Election Night.

All Vote by Mail ballots cast by Election Day and received within seven (7) days from Election Day will be accepted, processed, and once verified, counted. All Conditional Voter Registration (same-day registration) and Provisional Ballots cast on Election Day are processed and added to the tally once they are cleared.

Reporting Results on Election Night

First Results

8:30pm – 8:45pm

Vote by Mail ballots cast before Election Day

Ballots cast at a Vote Center before Election Day

Remaining Results: Ballots cast at a Vote Center on Election Day

When Vote Centers close, Election Workers will complete their closing procedures and then deliver their ballots to Sheriff’s Deputies at a designated Check-in Center. Sheriff’s Deputies then transport ballots from the Check-in Center to the Ballot Processing Center to be processed and counted.

The same official feed lists 5,891,851 registered voters countywide and 2,175 precincts countywide. That is the scoreboard before any of the boxes get filled in.

Turnout is the part that is already moving. And it is moving up.

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According to LAist, Los Angeles County had 711,333 processed ballots as of the morning of June 2, about 12% of registered voters, with 95% by mail and 5% in person.

That is a heavily vote-by-mail electorate, which matters for how the night unfolds.

The county’s own registrar gave a fresher snapshot in the afternoon. Per CBS Los Angeles, Dean Logan said just before 2 PM Pacific that more than 100,000 voters had turned out in person and nearly 1 million vote-by-mail ballots had been returned.

Logan also said turnout was running 2 to 3 points ahead of the comparable 2022 gubernatorial primary and could land in the mid-30 percentile range.

That points to a serious primary, and people showed up.

Here is how the results are expected to land once the clock hits 8 PM Pacific.

The first batch should include vote-by-mail ballots received before June 2. After that comes early vote-center ballots, and then Election Day in-person votes.

That order is why early leads can shift. The first dump is a mail-heavy crowd, and the later piles can look different.

Now the part everyone actually wants, which is whether Pratt has a real shot. The polling says this is volatile, not settled.

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The late UC Berkeley-LA Times poll had Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%, with a margin of error around 3%.

That is not a runaway. That is a three-way knife fight for two runoff slots.

FOX 11 reported an Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll from May 9-10 that had Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22%, Raman at 19%, and undecided voters down to 16%.

That poll also showed Pratt jumping 12 points from March, which is why tonight has the feel of something bigger than a celebrity vanity run.

Cygnal’s May 15-18 survey showed another version of the same trend: Bass at 25%, Pratt at 22%, Raman at 18%, and 19% undecided on the initial ballot.

After messaging exposure, Cygnal had Pratt and Bass tied at 25%, Raman at 19%, and undecideds down to 16%.

That swing is the whole story. A race with that many movable voters is a race nobody owns yet.

The other trend is the mood of the city. Cygnal found 58% of likely nonpartisan primary voters said Los Angeles was on the wrong track, compared with 30% saying it was headed in the right direction.

The top issues in that survey were cost of living, homelessness, city corruption, housing affordability, and infrastructure. Those are exactly the lanes Pratt has been trying to hammer.

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And there is a rule that decides the night. If no candidate clears 50%, the top two finishers advance to a November runoff.

In a crowded field with that much undecided, an outright majority is a tall order. The more likely outcome is a fight for those two runoff slots.

So watch the order the batches drop, watch whether anyone gets near 50%, and watch the gap between the second and third candidates.

Pratt being on the ballot and competitive in a major-city mayor primary is the headline. Whether he banks a runoff slot is the question the next few hours answer.

Until the county posts something, the only honest score is zero to zero. We will update as the real numbers come in after polls close.

This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.

 

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