Finally, some good news for the Trump campaign.
The only pollster to predict President Trump’s win in Michigan in 2016 is now saying that the president is up on Joe Biden in Wisconsin and has a closer lead in Michigan. These swing states could be the difference for President Trump in November.
The new Trafalgar Group poll was released on Sunday, and the Georgia-based political strategist Robert Cahaly, who owns the Trafalgar Group, has a slight edge to Trump, similar to the 2016 win with Trump at 47.2% and Clinton at 46.5%.
The new poll has Trump leading Biden, 45.5% to 44.6%.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattleGroundState #Wisconsin #poll conducted Jun 23-25 shows a tossup race with: 44.6% @JoeBiden, 45.5% @realDonaldTrump, 7.5% Other Party, & 2.4% Und. See Report: https://t.co/3sBkaNBFkl pic.twitter.com/NqTN6lOsc2
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) June 28, 2020
According to the Trafalgar Group, Michigan is closer in the polls than reported by other pollsters. African American support for Trump in the survey registered at 11.8%, which is a big jump from the 6% Trump got in exit polls in 2016.
LESS THAN A PERCENTAGE POINT OR TRAILING 16 POINTS?
The big difference between poll results in Michigan is exactly why most Americans don’t trust them.
In a survey of 1,101 likely general election voters polled between June 16-18, 2020, Cahaly found Biden leading Trump among Michigan residents by less than a percentage point. Lansing, Michigan-based EPIC-MRA released a survey around the same time showing Trump trailing Biden by 16 percentage points.
The Trafalgar Group’s Cahaly must be doing something right in his polling because he predicted correctly in 2016 when no one else did. He told RealClear Politics he’s using the same methodology he used four years ago with an enhanced system for targeting likely voters.
Cahaly also says his polling suggests there is the silent majority that is still shy to say that they are voting for President Trump. With the cancel culture rearing its ugly head at everyone who doesn’t agree with them, it’s no wonder that people are reluctant to speak up.