In 1980, President Ronald Reagan told Americans to ask themselves one simple question before heading off to the polls, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Last night, President Trump tweeted a video of Fox News’ Jesse Watters, who shared the latest results from Moody’s Analytics, that have accurately predicted the winner of presidential elections since 1980. Their predictions are based on three separate economic models.
Using their data, Moody’s is saying that Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020.
Moody’s uses three models that are based on how consumers feel about their financial situation, including gains in the stock market, and the unemployment rate.
Moody’s analysts are predicting that Trump will “cruise to an easy victory.”
Under 8 years of President Bush, the average middle-class family’s income was only up $400.
Under 8 years of President Obama, the average middle-class family’s income just went up $1,000.
Under only 2 1/2 years of President Trump, the average middle-class family’s income has gone up $5,000.
“Those aren’t crumbs, Nancy,” Watters quips, adding, “If you factor in the tax cuts, they’ve gotten a $6,000 raise!”
All stock markets are hitting record highs.
The S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ are all up 30-40%
Unemployment is at a 50 year low.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1185759188040978432?s=20
Of the three models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report states.
“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.
Pj Media – Trump will have other advantages as well. He will have substantially more money than the Democrat. And there are going to be a lot of disappointed Democrats because their candidate failed to win the nomination. Republicans, on the other hand, are united and, for the most part, enthusiastic.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong, and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm’s director of government counseling and public finance research, and Bernard Yaros, assistant director and economist. “It’s about turnout.”
Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.
Democrats may be excited about 2020, as most polls have gauged, but if this impeachment nonsense keeps up, Republicans will be angry. All you have to do is look at the 2016 presidential election to see what an angry electorate can do.
What do you think? Is there a more enthused base than the Americans who support President Trump in 2020? Are Trump voters more inspired to vote in 2020 than they were in 2016?
