In 1980, President Ronald Reagan told Americans to ask themselves one simple question before heading off to the polls, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Last night, President Trump tweeted a video of Fox News’ Jesse Watters, who shared the latest results from Moody’s Analytics, that have accurately predicted the winner of presidential elections since 1980. Their predictions are based on three separate economic models.
Using their data, Moody’s is saying that Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020.
Moody’s uses three models that are based on how consumers feel about their financial situation, including gains in the stock market, and the unemployment rate.
Moody’s analysts are predicting that Trump will “cruise to an easy victory.”
Under 8 years of President Bush, the average middle-class family’s income was only up $400.
Under 8 years of President Obama, the average middle-class family’s income just went up $1,000.
Under only 2 1/2 years of President Trump, the average middle-class family’s income has gone up $5,000.
“Those aren’t crumbs, Nancy,” Watters quips, adding, “If you factor in the tax cuts, they’ve gotten a $6,000 raise!”
All stock markets are hitting record highs.
The S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ are all up 30-40%
Unemployment is at a 50 year low.
Of the three models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report states.
“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.