Florida’s early-vote numbers just made a dramatic move — and Republicans were the ones driving it.

A live tracker snapshot at noon Monday showed registered Republicans accounting for 48.8% of the day’s early vote, compared with 31.2% for registered Democrats.

That is a stunning 17.6-point Republican advantage for the day.

The surge was strong enough to erase the Democrats’ statewide ballot lead and briefly put Republicans ahead by roughly 6,300 ballots when vote-by-mail and in-person early voting were combined.

Eric Daugherty posted the fast-moving numbers:

ADVERTISEMENT

That statewide flip happened quickly.

Earlier Monday morning, a tracker update posted by Seth Levy showed registered Democrats ahead by 0.3 percentage points on 2,785,114 combined ballots.

About an hour later, CA ET Nerd reported that Republicans had overtaken that overall lead:

The official numbers show how Republicans got within striking distance before Monday’s new ballots began piling up.

The Florida Division of Elections compiled its statewide report at 8:06 a.m. Eastern on October 26. That report, which reflects cumulative county activity through the prior day, showed 1,403,569 returned mail ballots and 1,381,545 in-person early ballots.

Registered Democrats held a 103,642-ballot advantage in returned mail ballots in that official report. Registered Republicans held a 94,750-ballot advantage among in-person early voters.

Combined, Democrats were still ahead by just 8,892 ballots at the state’s morning checkpoint — a lead small enough for a powerful Republican day to erase.

The state explains that county supervisors are required to report at least once daily and that its official page may refresh at noon, 3 p.m., and 6 p.m. when late county files arrive. That makes intraday tracker numbers a moving target rather than a final result.

By later Monday, On Point Politics showed the cumulative registration split nearly even again as additional data arrived: 1,132,471 ballots from registered Democrats and 1,130,671 from registered Republicans out of more than 2.85 million ballots.

ADVERTISEMENT

The tracker also broke the total into 1,418,710 returned mail ballots and 1,432,805 in-person early ballots. It showed the overall registration split at 39.7% Democratic, 39.7% Republican, and 20.6% independent or other.

That later snapshot put registered Democrats back ahead by only 1,800 ballots, a razor-thin margin in a state where millions had already voted. It also described the early-vote composition as a clear positive signal for Republicans compared with the partisan balance its model had expected at that stage of the election.

In other words, Monday’s Republican surge was real, but the exact statewide lead changed as counties continued reporting. The important movement was the GOP’s ability to erase a morning deficit in a few hours and keep the cumulative registration count essentially tied.

One crucial point: these are voter-registration figures. They show whether the person who cast a ballot is registered Republican, Democrat, or something else.

They do not reveal how anyone actually voted, and they are not election results.

Still, the turnout movement matters.

Republicans turned a small morning deficit into a temporary statewide lead, while posting a double-digit advantage among the day’s early voters. That is the kind of participation campaigns want to see with Election Day closing in.

President Donald Trump helped put an unmistakable spotlight on early voting over the weekend when he and First Lady Melania Trump cast their ballots in West Palm Beach.

All 67 Florida counties offer early voting from October 24 through October 31, with some counties providing additional days. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.

ADVERTISEMENT

Florida Republicans have already shown they can wipe out a statewide ballot deficit in a matter of hours.

Now the question is whether they can keep the pressure on, rebuild that lead as new county files land, and carry the momentum all the way through Election Day.

This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.

 

Join The Conversation. Leave a Comment.