Republicans have continued to gain momentum in the final two weeks before the upcoming midterm elections.
Republicans only appear at risk of losing one Senate seat in Pennsylvania while they have multiple pickup opportunities in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
In Georgia, Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker is currently up by 1.6 percent, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average. Four out of five of the most recent polls conducted this month show, Walker, ahead.
John Fetterman, who was leading Republican Mehmet Oz by four percent at the beginning of October, now only leads him by 1.2 percent, according to the RCP average.
In Nevada, Adam Laxalt narrowly leads against Democratic incumbent Catherine Masto by 0.4 percent.
In a new development, Nate Silver’s 538 Senate projection has put Republicans narrowly ahead by a 51-49 percent margin for winning the Senate.
Silver currently has Republicans losing Pennsylvania, putting Fetterman’s chances at 57 percent for winning the state.
Meanwhile, he has Republicans ahead in Georgia and Nevada.
If his projections hold, Republicans would win the Senate 51-49.
It's all been within the range of 50/50, and 51/49 one way fundamentally isn't much different than 51/49 the other way, but still the first GOP lead by any margin in our Senate forecast since July.https://t.co/ImBoBkGHdD pic.twitter.com/UOyf8wT8eJ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2022
Republicans are now favored to retake the Senate on November 8, forecaster FiveThirtyEight predicted Tuesday for the first time since July.
FiveThirtyEight estimated Republicans are favored to take back the Senate with 51 seats. The Senate is currently split 50/50 with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote.
The pollster appears to have shifted the Nevada race in favor of Republicans. Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt is challenging Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).
Laxalt has led the race in 10 of the last 14 polls, with an average lead of nearly two points. Cortez Masto has outspent Laxalt by about $9 million, according to third quarter fundraising totals.
To retake the Senate, Republicans need to hold Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and retake either Arizona, Nevada, Washington, New Hampshire, or Georgia to have a one seat majority in the Senate.