James Talarico has spent weeks riding headlines that suggested Democrats might finally be ready to crack Texas.

A new statewide survey just put Republican Ken Paxton in front.

Quantus Insights found Paxton at 47.2% and Talarico at 46.7% among likely voters, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 2.2% and another 3.9% undecided. The half-point margin is inside the survey’s margin of error, but it is still a welcome reversal for Republicans after a run of polls showing Talarico ahead.

Here are the new numbers directly from the pollster:

The survey was conducted October 9 through October 11 with 854 respondents and a likely-voter ballot base of 839. Quantus described the contest as effectively tied, which is the sober way to read a lead this small.

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The crosstabs still give Republicans a clear path. Paxton led voters 65 and older by 17 points, carried rural voters 64% to 30%, and won white voters 59% to 36%.

He also held a five-point edge in the suburbs, where the statewide race may be decided.

Talarico led among independents, younger voters, women, Black voters, Hispanic voters and urban Texans. That coalition is why no Republican should treat a half-point advantage like a victory lap.

The broader picture remains difficult. RealClearPolling still shows Talarico ahead 48.1% to 45.1% in its current average, a real advantage but not one large enough to put the race beyond a normal polling miss or late turnout shift.

That average includes several surveys conducted from mid-September through early October, with different sample sizes, field periods and likely-voter screens. ReconMR/Siena gave Talarico a four-point lead, Trafalgar put him ahead by three, and YouGov showed a six-point advantage despite their different polling approaches.

Other recent polls were tighter. Rasmussen had Talarico up one, Fox News put him ahead by two, and UMass Lowell found the race tied.

The polling window stretches from September 18 through October 8, so it blends several snapshots taken before the newest Quantus result. Nine surveys appear in the current average, and none showed Paxton leading.

That makes the new half-point Paxton edge a genuine break from the recent pattern. The average remains a useful baseline, not a guarantee that the final three weeks will follow the same line.

The range shows why neither campaign can honestly claim control. Talarico has led most of the recent public polling, but his advantage has varied sharply depending on the pollster and likely-voter model.

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The Quantus result breaks the assumption that every late poll would keep drifting left. It puts the race back where Texas Republicans need it: close enough for turnout and message discipline to decide the result.

Paxton is leaning hard into the border contrast. In a fresh closing-stretch message, he accused Talarico of repeatedly voting against tougher enforcement measures and support for local law enforcement.

Watch Paxton make that case:

That is the argument Republicans have to make in the final weeks. Talarico has worked to market himself as a culturally familiar Texas moderate, but his voting record gives Paxton room to challenge that image on immigration, energy and the social issues that still move conservative voters.

The Quantus numbers show why the contrast can work. Paxton received 87% of Republicans, while Talarico took 7% of GOP voters.

Paxton does not need to convert Texas into a landslide. He needs to bring hesitant Republicans home and keep Talarico from building an unbeatable suburban margin.

Favorability remains Paxton’s weak spot. Quantus measured him at 45.8% favorable and 51.8% unfavorable, while Talarico stood at 48.6% favorable and 46.8% unfavorable.

Yet voters gave Paxton a different kind of advantage when asked whose values line up with most Texans. Paxton reached 48.6% on that measure, compared with 45.5% for Talarico.

Republicans are reinforcing that contrast with a closing message built around Paxton’s record as attorney general:

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Paxton still has work to do. Talarico’s advantage with independents in this survey was 52% to 37%, and another poll released Tuesday showed the Democrat ahead statewide.

Nobody can honestly call this race settled.

What Republicans can say is that the Democrat’s momentum is no longer a one-way story.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Talarico wants voters to believe 2026 is the year that history finally breaks.

This poll says Paxton is still standing squarely in the way.

Now the race comes down to whether Texas Republicans act like a party defending its home turf — or spectators watching Democrats try to take it away.

This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.

 

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