Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is warning that Vladimir Putin may be preparing a dangerous new test for NATO: send drones or missiles across an allied border, call the strike an accident and watch to see whether the alliance blinks.
Tusk delivered the warning in Poland’s parliament after intelligence assessments pointed to possible Russian “hybrid” attacks on countries supporting Ukraine.
The strategy he described would operate in the gray zone between war and deniability. A projectile could cross into NATO territory, cause damage and then be dismissed by Moscow as an unfortunate mistake before allied governments decide how to respond.
Video from Tusk’s address captured the Polish leader warning that hope alone is not enough as Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine’s energy and transportation systems.
The Polish Prime Minister’s Office said the intelligence is highly consistent and persuasive. It identified late autumn and winter as a potentially critical phase of the war and warned that Moscow is expected to keep hammering major Ukrainian cities, energy facilities, rail lines and supply routes.
The official summary said Russia is deploying jet-powered attack drones on a larger scale. Those weapons fly faster and higher than many earlier models, leaving defenders less time to detect and stop them.
Tusk said possible targets extend beyond Ukraine. In the intelligence assessment he presented, Russia’s plans may include drone and missile strikes against states supporting Kyiv, including Poland.
He did not publicly identify Britain as a specific target. Britain is plainly part of the wider group of Ukraine’s military backers, however, and Moscow has been increasing its pressure on London over British weapons support.
That confrontation intensified one day after Tusk’s speech, when Russia summoned Britain’s senior diplomat in Moscow to protest the flow of weapons to Ukraine.
Russia has summoned Britain’s charge d’affaires in Moscow to issue a formal protest over the UK’s weapons supplies to Ukraine.
Britain has pledged to provide Ukraine with the military equipment it needs to resist Russia’s occupation.
It comes on the first day of Russia’s… pic.twitter.com/YVvpzHwpUG
— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) September 18, 2026
The Associated Press reported that Tusk believes the purpose of such “accidental” strikes would be to paralyze or weaken NATO members when they must decide whether to defend an ally. He warned that Russia wants to convince European governments that Article 5 is more theory than reality.
Article 5 is NATO’s collective-defense promise: an armed attack against one member is treated as an attack against them all.
Putin would not need to defeat NATO militarily to score a strategic victory. He would only need to expose hesitation, division or fear at the moment the pledge is tested.
Poland has more reason than most countries to take that possibility seriously. It borders Ukraine, serves as a crucial route for Western aid and sits on NATO’s eastern flank.
The pressure is already visible near that border. During a major Russian attack on western Ukraine on September 16, Poland scrambled military aircraft, activated air-defense and radar systems, and temporarily suspended civilian operations at the Rzeszow and Lublin airports.
Poland’s Operational Command later said the operation ended without any confirmed violation of Polish airspace, while emphasizing that its forces remained ready to protect the country.
Operowanie wojskowego lotnictwa w polskiej przestrzeni powietrznej, związane z uderzeniami bezzałogowych statków powietrznych Federacji Rosyjskiej na cele w zachodniej części Ukrainy, zostało zakończone, a naziemne systemy obrony powietrznej oraz rozpoznania radiolokacyjnego… pic.twitter.com/n8fSljejh3
— Dowództwo Operacyjne RSZ (@DowOperSZ) September 16, 2026
Tusk also said Russian attacks have been creeping closer to the border crossings Poland relies on to move assistance into Ukraine. If those routes are damaged during a brutal winter campaign, Warsaw’s ability to send emergency energy and other aid could be badly constrained.
Trending Politics noted that European governments have already accused Russia of sabotage, drone incursions and other hybrid operations across the continent. The Kremlin has denied responsibility for alleged sabotage campaigns.
The warning also lands as President Trump pushes for an end to the war and explores a stronger permanent American military presence in Poland. Tusk said earlier promises of an energy truce had not stopped Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
That leaves NATO facing a hard reality. Negotiations may be worth pursuing, but peace rhetoric cannot substitute for defenses strong enough to make aggression fail.
If Tusk’s assessment is right, Putin’s next gamble may be designed less to seize territory than to fracture the alliance psychologically. A strike labeled an accident could force NATO leaders to choose, under enormous pressure, whether the alliance’s central promise still means what it says.
Poland’s message is simple: prepare now, because the worst moment to discover that Article 5 is only a slogan would be after Russia has already tested it.
What are your thoughts?
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.
