President Trump told reporters Wednesday that the United States is in the “final stages” of talks with Iran, and oil markets reacted almost immediately.
Crude prices tumbled as traders priced in the possibility that Trump could force a deal and reopen energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
That is exactly the kind of market-moving leverage Trump has been trying to build: military pressure on one side, negotiations on the other, and Iran facing consequences if it refuses a deal.
BREAKING: US oil prices fall over -7% to $97/barrel after President Trump says the US is in "final stages" of talks with Iran. pic.twitter.com/9i8FDFcUCb
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 20, 2026
As Trending Politics reported, West Texas Intermediate futures fell more than 6% after Trump’s update.
Trending Politics said oil prices slid hard after President Trump told reporters the administration is in the “final stages” of talks with Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures fell more than 6% to $97.74 per barrel by 12:58 p.m. ET, while Brent futures also dropped nearly 6% to $104.62.
ADVERTISEMENTThe move showed how quickly traders reacted to the possibility of a diplomatic opening that could ease the supply crunch and get energy moving again through the Strait of Hormuz.
The conservative outlet also tied the move to Trump’s earlier decision to hold off renewed strikes against Iran after Gulf Arab allies asked for more room for negotiations. The key point was that Trump put enough pressure on Tehran to make markets believe a path out of the energy crisis may be opening soon in the days ahead.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the center of the entire story.
When that chokepoint is disrupted, oil markets feel it everywhere, including at American gas pumps.
Rigzone, publishing a Bloomberg energy-market report, said oil plunged after Trump’s comments raised hopes for a near-term restart of energy flows through Hormuz.
Rigzone’s Bloomberg report said oil plummeted after President Trump said the U.S. is in the “final stages” with Iran, raising expectations for a near-term restart of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate fell 5.7% to settle near $98 a barrel, while Brent slid 5.6% to settle near $105.02.
The market had already been whipsawed by headlines about the negotiations and the possibility of ending the war.
The same market report noted that Trump told reporters either there will be a deal or the United States will do things that are unpleasant, while adding that he hoped that would not happen. It also said traders have repeatedly priced in the possibility of abrupt de-escalation, including a deal that would reopen the key shipping lane and unlock millions of barrels stuck in the Persian Gulf.
That is the power of leverage.
Trump did not announce a giveaway to Iran. He announced that the talks are late-stage while keeping the threat of action on the table.
Reuters via Business Recorder carried the sharpest version of Trump’s warning.
Reuters quoted Trump saying the U.S. was in the “final stages” with Iran, while warning that the U.S. could still take “nasty” action if no deal emerges.
He also said he would give the process one shot and was in no hurry, adding that he would ideally like to see fewer people killed rather than many.
That is a peace-through-strength posture: negotiate seriously, but keep consequences firmly on the table during these Iran talks.
The same report said Iran accused Trump of preparing to restart the war and warned that any renewed strikes could bring retaliation beyond the Middle East. That is why the oil market is moving so violently.
Traders are not looking at normal diplomacy; they are looking at a high-stakes standoff where a deal could bring relief, while failure could bring a fresh military escalation.
The market relief is real, but so is the risk.
No peace agreement has been announced. Iran has not suddenly become trustworthy.
Wood Mackenzie laid out just how wide the range of outcomes remains.
Wood Mackenzie warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would pose the single greatest threat to global energy markets in decades. The firm said more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and condensate production is currently curtailed, while more than 80 million tonnes per year of LNG supply remains inaccessible to global markets.
Its most optimistic “Quick Peace” scenario assumes a workable peace agreement is reached soon and the Strait reopens by June.
Under that quick-peace path, Dated Brent eases to around $80 per barrel by the end of 2026 and falls further in 2027 as the oil market returns to oversupply. Under an extended disruption, however, Wood Mackenzie said Brent crude could approach $200 per barrel by the end of 2026.
Diesel and jet fuel prices could move toward $300 per barrel in major refining centers. That is the difference between relief for American families and a global energy disaster.
That is why Trump’s update mattered.
Markets do not move billions of dollars because a politician says something nice.
They move when traders believe the risk picture has changed.
President Trump has been warning Iran that it can either make a deal or face harder consequences.
Now, with talks supposedly in the final stages, oil traders are betting that Trump’s pressure campaign may finally be forcing movement.
That does not mean the crisis is over.
It means the same Trump strategy that had Iran staring down consequences is now strong enough to move global energy markets on the possibility of a deal.
