AS OF 9:15 A.M. CENTRAL — TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026

Election Day is underway, and control of both chambers of Congress is now in the hands of voters.

This morning edition begins before any congressional vote totals, credible exit polls, or national race calls have been released. That means the honest picture right now is still a polling picture — not a results picture.

This is the first dedicated hourly polling-and-results update of the day, so there is no earlier hourly results sheet to compare against. The material development since polls opened is that voting is now active, the final polling is locked, and every major race below remains uncalled with zero reported votes in this snapshot.

Republicans begin the day with a 53-47 Senate advantage and 219 members caucusing with the GOP in the House. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to reach 51.

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In the House, where two seats are vacant, the majority line remains 218.

The first hard warning for conservatives is obvious: final polling shows real danger across several states President Trump carried, but a poll is still a sample. No ballot count has validated any of those numbers.

The Senate Republican campaign arm put the stakes in plain language as polls opened:

PRE-ELECTION POLLING

99 chambers lists the final public Senate polling with field dates, sample sizes, pollster identities, and links back to the underlying releases. Its newest entries show a map where Republicans are defending more than one race inside ordinary polling error.

The database also separates raw poll results from forecast probabilities; the percentages cited below are poll responses, not predicted vote totals or counted ballots from election officials. Several final polls disagree sharply, especially in Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa.

No single survey deserves to be treated as destiny on Election Day morning. The numbers mark danger zones and turnout tests.

Every Senate race below remains POLLING ONLY, with no reported vote total and no call attached.

The final entries also preserve who was surveyed, allowing likely-voter results to be separated from broader adult samples.

ALASKA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

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InsiderAdvantage’s final poll, conducted October 31 through November 1 among 1,200 likely voters, put Democrat Mary Peltola at 48.3% and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 48.1%. The published margin was effectively even after rounding.

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so a close first-choice count could leave the final outcome unresolved well beyond tonight.

IOWA SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

AtlasIntel’s October 28-November 1 final poll of 1,219 likely voters showed Democrat Josh Turek at 50.5% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 46.4%, a 4.1-point Democratic edge. Another final survey had Hinson narrowly ahead.

Turnout and the actual count will settle this race.

KANSAS SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

AtlasIntel’s final survey of 2,038 likely voters, fielded October 28-November 1, reported Democrat Adam Hamilton at 51.9% and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 44.9%. That is a seven-point Democratic margin in the poll.

Other late polls also showed a competitive race, making Kansas one of the biggest potential shocks on the board.

MAINE SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

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Emerson College’s October 31-November 1 poll of 600 likely voters had Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 50.6% and Democrat Troy Jackson at 49.4%, a 1.2-point Collins lead. Other final surveys showed Jackson ahead.

Maine’s ranked-choice system adds another layer: if no candidate clears 50% on first choices, later rounds can delay the finish.

Senate battleground final polling dashboard, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine

Texas Republican Ken Paxton’s Election Day message confirms polls there opened at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. local time:

MICHIGAN SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

John Zogby Strategies surveyed 1,001 likely voters from October 31-November 2 and found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 51% and Republican Mike Rogers at 49%. That two-point split remains a survey reading.

Late polling varied, with most surveys placing Rogers in a difficult, still-contestable race.

OHIO SENATE SPECIAL — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

Trafalgar Group’s October 31-November 1 poll of 1,092 likely voters reported Democrat Sherrod Brown at 46.6% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 45.1%, a 1.5-point Brown edge. Emerson’s final poll moved the other direction and showed Husted narrowly ahead.

One final survey cannot be promoted into an election result.

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TEXAS SENATE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

Research Co.’s October 31-November 2 poll of 450 likely voters found Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%, a three-point Democratic advantage. Other late surveys ranged from a one-point Paxton lead to a larger Talarico lead.

Texas remains a turnout battle with no call attached.

Senate battleground final polling dashboard, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas

Mike Rogers posted the practical Michigan reminder this morning: polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time.

THE HOUSE BATTLEGROUNDS

99 chambers tracks hundreds of district polls and identifies the seats most likely to decide the House. The final district polling is thinner than the Senate polling, so sample sizes and field dates deserve extra attention.

Alaska’s at-large race and Maine’s 2nd District use ranked-choice voting, while the Pennsylvania races are conventional head-to-head contests. The national environment can move many districts at once, but a generic ballot cannot supply a district vote total.

The four contests below cover a Republican-held statewide district, a rural Maine seat, and two Pennsylvania districts that could reveal whether Democratic strength is reaching Trump-friendly territory. Every one remains POLLING ONLY.

That combination makes the group a practical early test of whether the national mood reaches sharply different local electorates.

ALASKA AT-LARGE — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

AtlasIntel’s October 28-November 1 poll of 522 likely voters put independent Bill Hill at 46.6% and Republican Rep. Nick Begich III at 46.5%, an effective tie. The broader polling average still leaned Republican, and ranked-choice transfers could be decisive.

MAINE 2ND DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

The University of New Hampshire surveyed 793 likely voters from October 27-31 and showed Republican Paul LePage at 52% and Democrat Matt Dunlap at 47%. The district uses ranked-choice voting, so the first-choice leader must clear 50% to avoid later rounds.

PENNSYLVANIA 7TH DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

The New York Times/Siena poll conducted October 16-22 among 401 likely voters reported Democrat Bob Brooks at 49.25% and Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie at 44.15%, a 5.1-point Democratic lead. The district backed President Trump in 2024 while narrowly electing Mackenzie, making it a major test of ticket movement.

PENNSYLVANIA 10TH DISTRICT — STATUS: POLLING ONLY.

The New York Times/Siena survey of 404 likely voters from October 16-22 had Republican Rep. Scott Perry at 48.03% and Democrat Janelle Stelson at 47.65%, effectively even. A one-point shift could change the leader, and no votes are reporting yet.

House battleground final polling dashboard, Alaska, Maine, and Pennsylvania

RealClearPolling shows why the House outlook is dangerous for the GOP and still unsettled. Its final national generic-ballot entries all put Democrats ahead, with published margins ranging from six to fifteen points among the newest surveys.

Those national polls measure party preference, not votes in any one district, and they do not automatically translate into a fixed number of seats. Redistricting, incumbency, candidate quality, and district partisanship can all break the national swing differently.

Republicans face a difficult national environment while retaining paths through individually favorable districts. The House scoreboard begins when state and local officials release counted votes.

The newest tracker entries also show the spread among pollsters, a reminder that national preference is measured with uncertainty before district-level counting starts.

EXIT POLLS

NO CREDIBLE EXIT POLL IS AVAILABLE YET.

No named national exit-poll consortium has released usable congressional data at this morning timestamp. AP VoteCast, if released later, is a voter survey built from interviews conducted by multiple methods; it will be labeled as a VOTER SURVEY, not silently relabeled as an exit poll.

Until a credible named source publishes methodology and findings, there is nothing responsible to chart in this section.

RACE PROJECTIONS / CALLS

NO SENATE OR HOUSE RACE IN THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN PROJECTED OR CALLED.

Associated Press says it will call all 435 House races and the 35 Senate contests on the ballot, but only when its decision desk determines there is no scenario in which a trailing candidate can close the gap. AP also stresses that it does not treat projections, polling leads, or candidate claims as certified results.

The majority threshold is 218 in the House. In the Senate, Republicans can control a 50-50 chamber because Vice President JD Vance can cast the tie-breaking vote, while Democrats need 51 seats.

The timing may stretch well beyond tonight because California counts large volumes of late-arriving mail ballots and Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting.

A race call identifies an apparent winner; it is still separate from a state’s later canvass and certification.

CONFIRMED REPORTED RESULTS

NO CONFIRMED CONGRESSIONAL VOTE TOTALS ARE REPORTING YET.

At 9:15 a.m. Central, the confirmed-results line for every major race is: zero votes reported, zero percent reporting, zero calls, and zero certified finals.

Associated Press notes that the first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in most of Indiana and Kentucky, with major Senate action arriving later. Georgia and South Carolina close at 7 p.m. Eastern; North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30.

Maine and Pennsylvania close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Michigan and Texas are not fully eligible for statewide calls until their final polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.

Alaska’s final polling location does not close until 1 a.m. Eastern. Those closing times make any morning claim of a congressional result false.

Results will be added only with actual vote totals, percentages, reporting levels, timestamps, and a named election authority or trusted results source.

HOUSE AND SENATE CONTROL DASHBOARDS

SENATE CONTROL: Pre-election baseline: 53 Republicans and 47 members of the Democratic caucus. Majority threshold: 50 for Republicans with the vice-presidential tie-break, 51 for Democrats.

2026 races called: 0. Seats currently leading from reported votes: 0.

Races uncalled: 35. Confirmed pickups: Republican 0, Democratic 0.

HOUSE CONTROL: Pre-election baseline: 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and two vacancies. Majority threshold: 218.

2026 races called: 0. Seats currently leading from reported votes: 0.

Races uncalled: 435. Confirmed pickups: Republican 0, Democratic 0.

No leading seat has been added to a called-seat total. There are no leads to count yet, and every 2026 congressional contest remains in the uncalled column in this morning snapshot.

House and Senate control dashboard showing no morning results or race calls

The bottom line at 9:15 a.m. Central: Republicans are defending narrow congressional majorities in a hostile polling environment. The country has not produced a single reported congressional result in this update.

Polling shows where to watch. Ballots will decide who wins.

This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.

 

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